The manufacturing PMI has been above the expansion/contraction line for three consecutive months, marking a steady start to the New Year

2022-04-29 0 By

Beijing, January 30 (Xinhua Finance) — China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 50.1% in the first month of 2022, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month but still above the 50-percent line between expansion and contraction, according to data released by the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on Wednesday.It was also the third month that this important leading macroeconomic indicator remained above the line separating expansion from contraction.”The manufacturing PMI eased slightly in January, but remained above the expansion/contraction line, indicating that the economy continues to show a broad-based recovery.”Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of The State Council’s macroeconomic research department, said.This is also the consensus of many surveyed experts based on the manufacturing PMI series index.The non-manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index, released together with the manufacturing PMI on the same day, were 51.1% and 51.0%, respectively, remaining in the expansion range, further confirming the above judgment.”In January, China’s economy continued to recover in the face of multiple tests, including the complex and severe economic environment and the spread of the epidemic.”National Bureau of Statistics service survey center senior statistician Zhao Qinghe said.As for the decline of the manufacturing industry, Zhang Liqun analyzed that there may be the influence of seasonal factors. From the historical data, the manufacturing PMI index in January in most years has fallen.”January was the traditional slow season for production in some manufacturing sectors.”Zhao Qinghe also said.From the breakdown of data, China Logistics Information Center researcher Wen Tao believes that the first month of the year, manufacturing PMI series data, there are many bright spots refract positive changes in the economy.For example, the production end remained stable. Although the production index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.9% last month, it has remained above 50% for three consecutive months, which also drove the purchasing volume index to stay above the expansion and contraction line for three consecutive months, and enterprises’ raw material purchasing activities remained stable.Meanwhile, the index of new export orders increased by 0.3 percentage points to 48.4% from the previous month, higher than the average of 47.3% in the second half of 2021.At the enterprise level, the PMI of large manufacturing enterprises rose 0.3 percentage points to 51.6% from the previous month, continuing to play the role of “stabilizer”.And the expected index of manufacturing production and operation activity rose 3.2 percentage points to 57.5% from last month, and enterprises generally hold optimistic expectations for the future market.While seeing the bright spots, the pressure cannot be ignored.Zheng Houcheng, director of Yingda Securities Research Institute, believes that from the performance of the manufacturing PMI sub-data in January, the following aspects of pressure should be paid more attention to:First, among the five sub-indexes of manufacturing PMI, except for the production index, the four sub-indexes of new orders, raw material inventory, employees and supplier delivery time all continued to dip below the line of expansion and contraction, indicating the overall pressure of manufacturing PMI in January.Second, the difference between the new orders index and the new export orders index narrowed to 0.9 percentage points, while the import index dropped 1 percentage point from the previous month to 47.2%, which may indicate further pressure on Domestic demand in China.Third, the PMI of small manufacturing enterprises decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 46.0% from the previous month, and continued to fall below the line of expansion and contraction to the recent low point, indicating that the trend of large and small enterprises is further differentiated, and small enterprises are under further pressure.Fourth, the purchasing prices of major raw materials and the producer price index both increased significantly compared with the previous value, and returned to above the line of expansion and contraction. Considering that international oil prices, non-ferrous metal prices and ferrous metal prices rose significantly in January, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of PPI in January is likely to rise compared with December last year.Five is the manufacturing PMI practitioners and non-manufacturing PMI practitioners index downward from the previous values, among them, the construction industry practitioners index fell for the first time since the outbreak from below, and services PMI practitioners index is a new low for nearly five months, showed that January employment facing certain pressure, the outbreak in local multipoint distribution is one of the main reason.Zhang Liqun believes that China’s current economic development is still facing demand contraction, supply shock, weak expectations of the triple pressure, we should earnestly implement the central Economic Work Conference deployment, actively expand domestic demand, to ensure the stability of the supply chain, and strive to consolidate the overall economic recovery to the good foundation.Zheng Houcheng predicted that China would strengthen cross-cycle macroeconomic adjustment in the later period, and the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices would continue to be promoted, and the policy support for small and micro enterprises would also be accelerated.Statement: Xinhua Finance is a national financial information platform contracted by Xinhua News Agency.Under no circumstances does the information published on this platform constitute investment advice.